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The World Meteorological Organization’s latest seasonal outlook says El Niño conditions are forecast to strengthen into early 2027, with warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific expected to peak around December. The WMO’s October 21 update for November 2026 to January 2027 forecasts a seasonal-average Niño 3.4 sea-surface-temperature anomaly of about +3.8°C.
That number describes a region of the tropical Pacific compared with its historical average. It is not a forecast that the global average temperature will rise by 3.8°C. El Niño can shift seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns, but impacts differ by region and are not guaranteed for a specific town or date.
What the WMO forecast measures
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern involving ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the tropical Pacific. Forecasters track sea-surface temperatures in areas including Niño 3.4, a standard region for monitoring the pattern.
The WMO’s October seasonal update combines model forecasts to estimate the climate system for November through January. It projects the Niño 3.4 anomaly at approximately +3.8°C for that three-month season, with warming expected to peak around December. The agency describes a relatively narrow spread among forecast systems, suggesting high confidence in the broad ocean signal; local weather uncertainty remains.
Why El Niño can matter worldwide
El Niño changes where heat and rainfall are distributed in the tropical Pacific and can influence weather patterns far beyond it. Effects may include shifts in rainfall, drought risk, flood risk and temperature probabilities. The pattern interacts with other ocean and atmospheric conditions, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and unusually warm sea surfaces in other basins.
NASA’s precipitation analysis for July to September 2026 reported that rainfall differed from seasonal averages in several regions. The WMO also said the Indian Ocean Dipole was expected to decline toward typical conditions during November to January, while the equatorial Atlantic was forecast to remain warmer than normal. These overlapping patterns mean one El Niño headline cannot provide a precise forecast for every region.
A seasonal outlook is not a local warning
A seasonal climate outlook estimates shifts in the odds of conditions over a broad area and several months. It does not tell a household whether it will rain on a particular day or whether a specific community will flood. National meteorological agencies issue localized forecasts and warnings as conditions develop.
The WMO outlook is a planning signal for governments, farmers, utilities, health agencies and emergency managers. It can support preparations for possible heat, drought or heavy rainfall, but does not confirm that a hazard will happen at a specific location. Follow local conditions and updated forecasts.
Climate change is a separate, long-term driver. El Niño is a natural climate pattern, and its impacts occur against a background of human-caused warming and exceptionally warm oceans. The seasonal forecast should not be described as proof that climate change caused this event or as a replacement for long-term projections.
What readers should watch next
The WMO issues its Global Seasonal Climate Update monthly. National weather agencies will refine regional outlooks as new observations arrive. Readers should follow their local meteorological service for practical advice, especially where seasonal flood, heat, drought or wildfire risks are possible.
Does +3.8°C mean Earth will warm by 3.8°C?
No. It is the forecast sea-surface-temperature anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific, averaged over a season.
Does El Niño guarantee floods or drought?
No. It changes probabilities and can shift rainfall patterns, but regional impacts vary and are affected by other climate conditions.
How long is the forecast valid?
The cited WMO outlook covers November 2026 through January 2027. It is a seasonal outlook, not a daily forecast.
Sources: WMO November–January seasonal outlook; WMO El Niño update; NASA rainfall analysis
